Cymru Premier · Monday, 31 August 2026 · 14:30. Final score 2–1 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 57% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 61% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | No |
The result model puts Haverfordwest County AFC at 56%, the draw at 22% and Trefelin at 22%, from expected goals of 1.94 and 1.15.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 | 56% | 57% | +0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.15 | 44% | 43% | 0% |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 | 51% | 46% | -5% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Haverfordwest County AFC 1.53, draw 4.10, Trefelin 4.50.
The league sets the starting point. Cymru Premier has produced over 2.5 goals in 54% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Haverfordwest County AFC have 2 in 5 this season (2 of 3 at home), Trefelin 2 in 5 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 52%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 5 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 51% and 60%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 60%, from expected goals of 1.94 for Haverfordwest County AFC and 1.15 for Trefelin. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haverfordwest County AFC | 5 | 40% | 0% | 0% |
| Trefelin | 5 | 40% | 40% | 20% |
More: Haverfordwest County AFC season stats · Trefelin season stats · Cymru Premier table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.