National League · Monday, 31 August 2026 · 15:00. Final score 2–1 (half-time 0–0). Our pre-match rating was 60% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Harrogate Town at 68%, the draw at 17% and Gateshead at 15%, from expected goals of 2.62 and 1.2.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 | 55% | 60% | +6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.08 | 45% | 40% | -6% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | 58% | 55% | -3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Harrogate Town 1.60, draw 4.10, Gateshead 4.50.
The league sets the starting point. National League has produced over 2.5 goals in 57% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Harrogate Town have 4 in 4 this season (2 of 2 at home), Gateshead 2 in 4 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 59%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 45% and 63%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 74%, from expected goals of 2.62 for Harrogate Town and 1.2 for Gateshead. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harrogate Town | 4 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Gateshead | 4 | 50% | 0% | 25% |
More: Harrogate Town season stats · Gateshead season stats · National League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.