Veikkausliiga · Monday, 31 August 2026 · 17:00. Final score 1–1 (half-time 0–0). Our pre-match rating was 56% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | Yes |
The result model puts Gnistan at 47%, the draw at 24% and Turku PS at 28%, from expected goals of 1.65 and 1.22.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.53 | 61% | 56% | -5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.40 | 39% | 44% | +5% |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 | 61% | 59% | -2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Gnistan 1.91, draw 3.70, Turku PS 3.40.
The league sets the starting point. Veikkausliiga has produced over 2.5 goals in 62% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Gnistan have 10 in 21 this season (6 of 10 at home), Turku PS 10 in 21 (4 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 57% and 54%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 57%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 55%, from expected goals of 1.65 for Gnistan and 1.22 for Turku PS. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Gnistan season stats · Turku PS season stats · Veikkausliiga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.