Allsvenskan · Monday, 31 August 2026 · 18:00. Final score 4–0 (half-time 2–0). Before kick-off we rated it 54% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 54% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Gais at 52%, the draw at 27% and IF Brommapojkarna at 21%, from expected goals of 1.43 and 0.78.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.70 | 55% | 46% | -9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.10 | 45% | 54% | +9% |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | 56% | 52% | -4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Gais 1.80, draw 3.70, IF Brommapojkarna 4.20.
The league sets the starting point. Allsvenskan has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Gais have 6 in 18 this season (2 of 9 at home), IF Brommapojkarna 13 in 18 (8 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 42% and 64%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 20%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 38%, from expected goals of 1.43 for Gais and 0.78 for IF Brommapojkarna. Folding in 30% of that view gives 46%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gais | 18 | 33% | 17% | 39% |
| IF Brommapojkarna | 18 | 72% | 33% | 78% |
More: Gais season stats · IF Brommapojkarna season stats · Allsvenskan table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.