Serie B · Monday, 31 August 2026 · 23:30. Final score 1–1 (half-time 1–1). Before kick-off we rated it 54% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 55% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 81% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Fortaleza EC at 55%, the draw at 25% and Operario-PR at 20%, from expected goals of 1.58 and 0.85.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.25 | 42% | 45% | +4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.62 | 58% | 55% | -4% |
| Both teams to score | 2.10 | 44% | 49% | +4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Fortaleza EC 1.73, draw 3.40, Operario-PR 5.25.
The league sets the starting point. Serie B has produced over 2.5 goals in 40% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Fortaleza EC have 9 in 24 this season (6 of 11 at home), Operario-PR 15 in 24 (8 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 42% and 54%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 46%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 44%, from expected goals of 1.58 for Fortaleza EC and 0.85 for Operario-PR. Folding in 30% of that view gives 45%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortaleza EC | 24 | 38% | 13% | 38% |
| Operario-PR | 24 | 63% | 21% | 54% |
More: Fortaleza EC season stats · Operario-PR season stats · Serie B table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.