National League · Monday, 31 August 2026 · 15:00. Final score 1–2 (half-time 0–0). Our pre-match rating was 53% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 63% | 37% | Yes |
The result model puts Forest Green at 59%, the draw at 23% and Altrincham at 18%, from expected goals of 1.8 and 0.87.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.48 | 64% | 53% | -10% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.60 | 36% | 47% | +10% |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 | 61% | 63% | +2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Forest Green 1.53, draw 4.33, Altrincham 4.75.
The league sets the starting point. National League has produced over 2.5 goals in 57% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Forest Green have 3 in 4 this season (2 of 2 at home), Altrincham 2 in 4 (0 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 61% and 53%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 54% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 50%, from expected goals of 1.8 for Forest Green and 0.87 for Altrincham. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forest Green | 4 | 75% | 25% | 50% |
| Altrincham | 4 | 50% | 25% | 50% |
More: Forest Green season stats · Altrincham season stats · National League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.