Challenge League · Monday, 31 August 2026 · 19:15. Final score 2–2 (half-time 0–2). Before kick-off we rated it 60% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 62% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | Yes |
The result model puts FC WIL 1900 at 27%, the draw at 23% and FC Aarau at 51%, from expected goals of 1.31 and 1.87.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.65 | 57% | 60% | +3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.20 | 43% | 40% | -3% |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 | 59% | 59% | 0% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: FC WIL 1900 3.75, draw 3.60, FC Aarau 1.90.
The league sets the starting point. Challenge League has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FC WIL 1900 have 3 in 5 this season (1 of 2 at home), FC Aarau 4 in 5 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 61% and 66%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 5 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 52% and 67%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Head to head. These sides have met 12 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 58%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 1.31 for FC WIL 1900 and 1.87 for FC Aarau. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC WIL 1900 | 5 | 60% | 40% | 60% |
| FC Aarau | 5 | 80% | 0% | 80% |
More: FC WIL 1900 season stats · FC Aarau season stats · Challenge League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.