Liga Profesional · Monday, 31 August 2026 · 23:00. Final score 0–0 (half-time 0–0). Our pre-match rating was 41% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 59% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | 78% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 43% | 57% | No |
The result model puts Estudiantes L.P. at 71%, the draw at 18% and Newells Old Boys at 11%, from expected goals of 2.2 and 0.74.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.35 | 40% | 41% | +1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.57 | 60% | 59% | -1% |
| Both teams to score | 2.20 | 42% | 43% | +1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Estudiantes L.P. 1.67, draw 3.50, Newells Old Boys 6.00.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Profesional has produced over 2.5 goals in 34% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Estudiantes L.P. have 6 in 23 this season (5 of 12 at home), Newells Old Boys 9 in 22 (6 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 32% and 40%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 36%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 25%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 35%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 56%, from expected goals of 2.2 for Estudiantes L.P. and 0.74 for Newells Old Boys. Folding in 30% of that view gives 41%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estudiantes L.P. | 23 | 26% | 9% | 17% |
| Newells Old Boys | 22 | 41% | 23% | 55% |
More: Estudiantes L.P. season stats · Newells Old Boys season stats · Liga Profesional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.