First League · Monday, 31 August 2026 · 17:00. Final score 2–2 (half-time 1–0). Our pre-match rating was 48% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 52% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | No |
The result model puts Dunav Ruse at 31%, the draw at 25% and Lokomotiv Sofia at 44%, from expected goals of 1.23 and 1.53.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 49% | 48% | 0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 51% | 52% | +0% |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 | 51% | 47% | -4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Dunav Ruse 3.50, draw 3.50, Lokomotiv Sofia 2.05.
The league sets the starting point. First League has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Dunav Ruse have 4 in 6 this season (0 of 2 at home), Lokomotiv Sofia 3 in 5 (1 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 46% and 46%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 46% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 47%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 52%, from expected goals of 1.23 for Dunav Ruse and 1.53 for Lokomotiv Sofia. Folding in 30% of that view gives 48%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dunav Ruse | 6 | 67% | 17% | 67% |
| Lokomotiv Sofia | 5 | 60% | 40% | 100% |
More: Dunav Ruse season stats · Lokomotiv Sofia season stats · First League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.