Erovnuli Liga · Monday, 31 August 2026 · 18:00. Final score 2–1 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 51% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 76% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Dinamo Tbilisi at 35%, the draw at 28% and Dila at 37%, from expected goals of 1.13 and 1.18.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 51% | 49% | -3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 49% | 51% | +3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Dinamo Tbilisi 1.85, draw 3.50, Dila 3.40.
The league sets the starting point. Erovnuli Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Dinamo Tbilisi have 13 in 21 this season (6 of 11 at home), Dila 9 in 21 (3 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 46%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Head to head. These sides have met 11 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 64%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 41%, from expected goals of 1.13 for Dinamo Tbilisi and 1.18 for Dila. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dinamo Tbilisi | 21 | 62% | 24% | 62% |
| Dila | 21 | 43% | 24% | 43% |
More: Dinamo Tbilisi season stats · Dila season stats · Erovnuli Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.