Coquimbo Unido v Huachipato — prediction, stats and goal analysis

Primera · Monday, 31 August 2026 · 01:00. Our rating makes this 50% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Primera average is 52%.

Open this match in the app →

Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Coquimbo Unido at 54%, the draw at 26% and Huachipato at 21%, from expected goals of 1.54 and 0.84.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. Primera has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Coquimbo Unido have 9 in 17 this season (3 of 8 at home), Huachipato 14 in 20 (4 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 56%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.

Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 54%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 43%, from expected goals of 1.54 for Coquimbo Unido and 0.84 for Huachipato. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

Head to head

More: Coquimbo Unido season stats · Huachipato season stats · Primera table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.