Segunda · Monday, 31 August 2026 · 20:30. Final score 1–2 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 50% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Celta de Vigo II at 36%, the draw at 26% and Castellón at 38%, from expected goals of 1.33 and 1.37.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 | 56% | 50% | -6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.15 | 44% | 50% | +6% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | 58% | 57% | 0% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Celta de Vigo II 4.10, draw 3.90, Castellón 1.80.
The league sets the starting point. Segunda has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Celta de Vigo II have 1 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), Castellón 0 in 2 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 45%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 50% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 1.33 for Celta de Vigo II and 1.37 for Castellón. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta de Vigo II | 2 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Castellón | 2 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
More: Celta de Vigo II season stats · Castellón season stats · Segunda table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.