National League · Monday, 31 August 2026 · 15:00. Final score 4–2 (half-time 3–1). Our pre-match rating was 62% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 38% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 60% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts Carlisle at 57%, the draw at 19% and Scunthorpe at 23%, from expected goals of 2.34 and 1.47.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.60 | 59% | 62% | +3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.30 | 41% | 38% | -3% |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | 56% | 58% | +2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Carlisle 1.62, draw 4.00, Scunthorpe 4.50.
The league sets the starting point. National League has produced over 2.5 goals in 57% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Carlisle have 2 in 4 this season (2 of 2 at home), Scunthorpe 2 in 4 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 56%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 59% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 58%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 73%, from expected goals of 2.34 for Carlisle and 1.47 for Scunthorpe. Folding in 30% of that view gives 62%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlisle | 4 | 50% | 50% | 100% |
| Scunthorpe | 4 | 50% | 50% | 75% |
More: Carlisle season stats · Scunthorpe season stats · National League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.