Cymru Premier · Monday, 31 August 2026 · 15:00. Final score 2–3 (half-time 1–2). Our pre-match rating was 61% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 39% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 61% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Caernarfon Town at 14%, the draw at 18% and The New Saints at 68%, from expected goals of 0.96 and 2.3.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 | 60% | 61% | +1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.35 | 40% | 39% | -1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 | 54% | 52% | -2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Caernarfon Town 4.75, draw 4.10, The New Saints 1.50.
The league sets the starting point. Cymru Premier has produced over 2.5 goals in 54% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Caernarfon Town have 4 in 5 this season (2 of 2 at home), The New Saints 2 in 5 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 60% and 52%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 5 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 60% and 61%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.
Head to head. These sides have met 12 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 75%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 61%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 0.96 for Caernarfon Town and 2.3 for The New Saints. Folding in 30% of that view gives 61%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caernarfon Town | 5 | 80% | 20% | 60% |
| The New Saints | 5 | 40% | 40% | 20% |
More: Caernarfon Town season stats · The New Saints season stats · Cymru Premier table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.