Segunda · Monday, 31 August 2026 · 18:00. Final score 2–2 (half-time 1–1). Before kick-off we rated it 61% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 61% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | 80% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | No |
The result model puts Burgos at 52%, the draw at 26% and Real Sociedad II at 21%, from expected goals of 1.49 and 0.85.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.15 | 44% | 39% | -5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.67 | 56% | 61% | +5% |
| Both teams to score | 2.00 | 46% | 46% | 0% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Burgos 1.95, draw 3.20, Real Sociedad II 4.33.
The league sets the starting point. Segunda has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Burgos have 1 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), Real Sociedad II 1 in 2 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 51%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 34% and 46%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 42%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 38%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 42%, from expected goals of 1.49 for Burgos and 0.85 for Real Sociedad II. Folding in 30% of that view gives 39%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos | 2 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Real Sociedad II | 2 | 50% | 0% | 50% |
More: Burgos season stats · Real Sociedad II season stats · Segunda table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.