Premier League · Monday, 31 August 2026 · 16:00. Final score 3–0 (half-time 1–0). Our pre-match rating was 51% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | No |
The result model puts Bukovyna at 21%, the draw at 25% and Dynamo Kyiv at 54%, from expected goals of 0.9 and 1.59.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 51% | 51% | 0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 49% | 49% | +0% |
| Both teams to score | 2.10 | 44% | 46% | +1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Bukovyna 5.50, draw 3.75, Dynamo Kyiv 1.50.
The league sets the starting point. Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Bukovyna have 1 in 3 this season (0 of 2 at home), Dynamo Kyiv 2 in 2 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 43% and 51%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 43% and 67%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 45%, from expected goals of 0.9 for Bukovyna and 1.59 for Dynamo Kyiv. Folding in 30% of that view gives 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bukovyna | 3 | 33% | 0% | 0% |
| Dynamo Kyiv | 2 | 100% | 0% | 100% |
More: Bukovyna season stats · Dynamo Kyiv season stats · Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.