Frauen-Bundesliga (W) · Monday, 31 August 2026 · 17:00. Final score 2–0 (half-time 1–0). Our pre-match rating was 70% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | no pick |
The result model puts Bayern Munich W at 77%, the draw at 14% and Mainz 05 W at 9%, from expected goals of 2.62 and 0.76.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.10 | 86% | 70% | -16% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 6.50 | 14% | 30% | +16% |
| Both teams to score | 2.50 | 38% | 50% | +13% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Bayern Munich W 1.02, draw 21.00, Mainz 05 W 51.00.
The league sets the starting point. Frauen-Bundesliga (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 67% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Bayern Munich W have 1 in 1 this season, Mainz 05 W 1 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 68% and 68%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 73% and 72%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 71%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 66%, from expected goals of 2.62 for Bayern Munich W and 0.76 for Mainz 05 W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 70%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich W | 1 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Mainz 05 W | 1 | 100% | 0% | 100% |
More: Bayern Munich W season stats · Frauen-Bundesliga (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.