Serie A · Monday, 31 August 2026 · 19:45. Final score 1–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 59% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 59% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 79% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 45% | 55% | No |
The result model puts Atalanta at 38%, the draw at 27% and Bologna at 35%, from expected goals of 1.29 and 1.22.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.91 | 50% | 41% | -9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.91 | 50% | 59% | +9% |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 | 53% | 45% | -8% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Atalanta 1.91, draw 3.60, Bologna 3.90.
The league sets the starting point. Serie A has produced over 2.5 goals in 46% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Atalanta have 1 in 1 this season (1 of 1 at home), Bologna 0 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 49% and 44%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 38% and 45%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 42%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 17%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 40%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 46%, from expected goals of 1.29 for Atalanta and 1.22 for Bologna. Folding in 30% of that view gives 41%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Atalanta season stats · Bologna season stats · Serie A table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.