First League · Monday, 31 August 2026 · 19:15. Final score 2–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 57% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 57% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 79% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 41% | 59% | No |
The result model puts Arda Kardzhali at 63%, the draw at 23% and Botev Vratsa at 14%, from expected goals of 1.77 and 0.7.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.25 | 42% | 43% | +1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.62 | 58% | 57% | -1% |
| Both teams to score | 2.38 | 39% | 41% | +2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Arda Kardzhali 1.53, draw 3.70, Botev Vratsa 7.00.
The league sets the starting point. First League has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Arda Kardzhali have 2 in 6 this season (1 of 2 at home), Botev Vratsa 4 in 6 (3 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 43% and 52%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 39% and 41%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 41%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 42%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 45%, from expected goals of 1.77 for Arda Kardzhali and 0.7 for Botev Vratsa. Folding in 30% of that view gives 43%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arda Kardzhali | 6 | 33% | 17% | 50% |
| Botev Vratsa | 6 | 67% | 17% | 50% |
More: Arda Kardzhali season stats · Botev Vratsa season stats · First League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.