Premyer Liqa · Monday, 31 August 2026 · 15:00. Final score 0–1 (half-time 0–0). Our pre-match rating was 52% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | Yes |
The result model puts Araz at 20%, the draw at 24% and Sabah FA at 57%, from expected goals of 0.9 and 1.71.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.65 | 57% | 52% | -5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.20 | 43% | 48% | +5% |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 | 50% | 50% | +0% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Araz 7.00, draw 4.33, Sabah FA 1.36.
The league sets the starting point. Premyer Liqa has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Araz have 1 in 2 this season (0 of 1 at home), Sabah FA 0 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 46% and 46%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 56% and 60%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Head to head. These sides have met 11 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 36%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 48%, from expected goals of 0.9 for Araz and 1.71 for Sabah FA. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Araz season stats · Sabah FA season stats · Premyer Liqa table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.