Super Liga · Sunday, 30 August 2026 · 19:00. Final score 0–2 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 56% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | Yes |
The result model puts Zemun at 19%, the draw at 23% and FK Crvena Zvezda at 58%, from expected goals of 0.94 and 1.83.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.25 | 75% | 56% | -19% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.75 | 25% | 44% | +19% |
| Both teams to score | 2.75 | 34% | 50% | +17% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Zemun 26.00, draw 11.00, FK Crvena Zvezda 1.07.
The league sets the starting point. Super Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Zemun have 3 in 6 this season (1 of 3 at home), FK Crvena Zvezda 3 in 4. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 49% and 52%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 49% and 69%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 57%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 53%, from expected goals of 0.94 for Zemun and 1.83 for FK Crvena Zvezda. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zemun | 6 | 50% | 33% | 17% |
| FK Crvena Zvezda | 4 | 75% | 75% | 25% |
More: Zemun season stats · FK Crvena Zvezda season stats · Super Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.