Primera Division · Sunday, 30 August 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 51% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Primera Division average is 51%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 73% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts UCV Moquegua at 50%, the draw at 25% and Alianza Atletico at 25%, from expected goals of 1.6 and 1.05.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. UCV Moquegua have 12 in 23 this season (7 of 11 at home), Alianza Atletico 11 in 23 (6 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 49%, from expected goals of 1.6 for UCV Moquegua and 1.05 for Alianza Atletico. Folding in 30% of that view gives 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCV Moquegua | 23 | 52% | 17% | 43% |
| Alianza Atletico | 23 | 48% | 35% | 61% |
More: UCV Moquegua season stats · Alianza Atletico season stats · Primera Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.