Bundesliga · Sunday, 30 August 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 46% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Bundesliga average is 51%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 54% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts TSV Hartberg at 40%, the draw at 26% and Ried at 34%, from expected goals of 1.39 and 1.28.
The league sets the starting point. Bundesliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. TSV Hartberg have 0 in 3 this season (0 of 2 at home), Ried 2 in 4 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 44% and 51%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 46% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 48%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 44%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 50%, from expected goals of 1.39 for TSV Hartberg and 1.28 for Ried. Folding in 30% of that view gives 46%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSV Hartberg | 3 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Ried | 4 | 50% | 25% | 75% |
More: TSV Hartberg season stats · Ried season stats · Bundesliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.