Trans Narva v Tammeka — prediction, stats and goal analysis

Meistriliiga · Sunday, 30 August 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 62% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Meistriliiga average is 67%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Trans Narva at 40%, the draw at 25% and Tammeka at 35%, from expected goals of 1.51 and 1.38.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. Meistriliiga has produced over 2.5 goals in 67% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Trans Narva have 17 in 24 this season (9 of 12 at home), Tammeka 11 in 21 (6 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 70% and 61%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 66%.

Head to head. These sides have met 12 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 58%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 65%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 55%, from expected goals of 1.51 for Trans Narva and 1.38 for Tammeka. Folding in 30% of that view gives 62%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

Head to head

More: Trans Narva season stats · Tammeka season stats · Meistriliiga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.