MLS · Sunday, 30 August 2026. Final score 1–1 (half-time 0–1). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 54% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts Toronto FC at 36%, the draw at 28% and New York City FC at 36%, from expected goals of 1.22 and 1.24.
The league sets the starting point. MLS has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Toronto FC have 14 in 21 this season (8 of 11 at home), New York City FC 12 in 21 (4 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 63% and 59%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 21 and 21 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 55% and 58%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 57%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 58%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 45%, from expected goals of 1.22 for Toronto FC and 1.24 for New York City FC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto FC | 21 | 67% | 33% | 81% |
| New York City FC | 21 | 57% | 29% | 71% |
More: Toronto FC season stats · New York City FC season stats · MLS table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.