Toronto FC v New York City FC — prediction, stats and goal analysis

MLS · Sunday, 30 August 2026 · 00:30. Our rating makes this 59% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The MLS average is 60%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Toronto FC at 41%, the draw at 25% and New York City FC at 34%, from expected goals of 1.48 and 1.33.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. MLS has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Toronto FC have 13 in 20 this season (8 of 11 at home), New York City FC 12 in 20 (4 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 58%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.

Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 61%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 53%, from expected goals of 1.48 for Toronto FC and 1.33 for New York City FC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

Head to head

More: Toronto FC season stats · New York City FC season stats · MLS table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.