SJK Akatemia v Klubi-04 — prediction, stats and goal analysis

Ykkosliiga · Sunday, 30 August 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 40% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Ykkosliiga average is 60%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts SJK Akatemia at 27%, the draw at 33% and Klubi-04 at 40%, from expected goals of 0.75 and 0.99.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. Ykkosliiga has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. SJK Akatemia have 5 in 20 this season (1 of 9 at home), Klubi-04 4 in 19 (2 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 41% and 41%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 45%.

Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 47%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 25%, from expected goals of 0.75 for SJK Akatemia and 0.99 for Klubi-04. Folding in 30% of that view gives 40%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

Head to head

More: SJK Akatemia season stats · Klubi-04 season stats · Ykkosliiga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.