Bundesliga · Sunday, 30 August 2026 · 14:30. Our rating makes this 59% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Bundesliga average is 62%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 62% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts SC Freiburg at 56%, the draw at 23% and Werder Bremen at 21%, from expected goals of 1.84 and 1.05.
The league sets the starting point. Bundesliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 62% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. SC Freiburg have 22 in 34 this season (12 of 17 at home), Werder Bremen 18 in 34 (9 of 17 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 65% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 61%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 61%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 55%, from expected goals of 1.84 for SC Freiburg and 1.05 for Werder Bremen. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg | 34 | 65% | 38% | 62% |
| Werder Bremen | 34 | 53% | 35% | 47% |
More: SC Freiburg season stats · Werder Bremen season stats · Bundesliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.