Premijer Liga · Sunday, 30 August 2026 · 20:00. Final score 2–2 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 62% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 62% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 79% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 34% | 66% | No |
The result model puts Radnik Bijeljina at 12%, the draw at 23% and Borac Banja Luka at 65%, from expected goals of 0.58 and 1.72.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.05 | 46% | 38% | -8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.75 | 54% | 62% | +8% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Radnik Bijeljina 10.00, draw 4.33, Borac Banja Luka 1.27.
The league sets the starting point. Premijer Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 38% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Radnik Bijeljina have 2 in 3 this season (1 of 1 at home), Borac Banja Luka 1 in 2. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 42% and 39%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 35% and 46%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 40%.
Head to head. These sides have met 7 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 14%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 38%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 40%, from expected goals of 0.58 for Radnik Bijeljina and 1.72 for Borac Banja Luka. Folding in 30% of that view gives 38%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Radnik Bijeljina | 3 | 67% | 33% | 67% |
| Borac Banja Luka | 2 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
More: Radnik Bijeljina season stats · Borac Banja Luka season stats · Premijer Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.