Primera Nacional · Sunday, 30 August 2026 · 20:00. Our rating makes this 25% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Primera Nacional average is 30%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 75% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 10% | 90% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 36% | 64% | No |
The result model puts Quilmes at 42%, the draw at 40% and Temperley at 18%, from expected goals of 0.8 and 0.43.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Nacional has produced over 2.5 goals in 30% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Quilmes have 9 in 25 this season (4 of 13 at home), Temperley 8 in 25 (1 of 13 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 32% and 26%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 29%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 30%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 13%, from expected goals of 0.8 for Quilmes and 0.43 for Temperley. Folding in 30% of that view gives 25%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Quilmes season stats · Temperley season stats · Primera Nacional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.