USL Championship · Sunday, 30 August 2026 · 02:30. Our rating makes this 46% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The USL Championship average is 49%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 54% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 73% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts New Mexico United at 46%, the draw at 27% and San Antonio at 28%, from expected goals of 1.42 and 1.04.
The league sets the starting point. USL Championship has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. New Mexico United have 8 in 17 this season (4 of 9 at home), San Antonio 9 in 20 (3 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 45%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 47%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 47%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 44%, from expected goals of 1.42 for New Mexico United and 1.04 for San Antonio. Folding in 30% of that view gives 46%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico United | 17 | 47% | 29% | 47% |
| San Antonio | 20 | 45% | 20% | 50% |
More: New Mexico United season stats · San Antonio season stats · USL Championship table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.