Mallorca v AD Ceuta FC — prediction, stats and goal analysis

Segunda · Sunday, 30 August 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 56% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Segunda average is 50%.

Open this match in the app →

Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Mallorca at 61%, the draw at 22% and AD Ceuta FC at 18%, from expected goals of 1.94 and 0.94.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. Segunda has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Mallorca have 0 in 1 this season (0 of 1 at home), AD Ceuta FC 1 in 1 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 47% and 53%.

Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 62% and 55%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 57%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 55%, from expected goals of 1.94 for Mallorca and 0.94 for AD Ceuta FC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

More: Mallorca season stats · AD Ceuta FC season stats · Segunda table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.