Lillestrom v Fredrikstad — prediction, stats and goal analysis

Eliteserien · Sunday, 30 August 2026 · 18:15. Our rating makes this 59% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Eliteserien average is 62%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Lillestrom at 57%, the draw at 22% and Fredrikstad at 21%, from expected goals of 1.88 and 1.04.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. Eliteserien has produced over 2.5 goals in 62% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Lillestrom have 8 in 17 this season (6 of 8 at home), Fredrikstad 9 in 17 (5 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 58%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.

Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 60%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 56%, from expected goals of 1.88 for Lillestrom and 1.04 for Fredrikstad. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

Head to head

More: Lillestrom season stats · Fredrikstad season stats · Eliteserien table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.