MLS · Sunday, 30 August 2026 · 00:30. Our rating makes this 71% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The MLS average is 60%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 29% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 63% | 37% | Yes |
The result model puts Inter Miami at 57%, the draw at 18% and CF Montreal at 25%, from expected goals of 2.58 and 1.69.
The league sets the starting point. MLS has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Inter Miami have 15 in 20 this season (6 of 8 at home), CF Montreal 13 in 20 (9 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 67% and 66%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 65%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 80%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 67%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 80%, from expected goals of 2.58 for Inter Miami and 1.69 for CF Montreal. Folding in 30% of that view gives 71%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter Miami | 20 | 75% | 65% | 75% |
| CF Montreal | 20 | 65% | 35% | 50% |
More: Inter Miami season stats · CF Montreal season stats · MLS table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.