MLS · Sunday, 30 August 2026 · 01:30. Our rating makes this 54% to go over 2.5 goals, though our own outlier boards contradict the call, so we sit it out. The MLS average is 60%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | no pick |
The result model puts Houston Dynamo at 38%, the draw at 27% and San Jose Earthquakes at 35%, from expected goals of 1.32 and 1.25.
The league sets the starting point. MLS has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Houston Dynamo have 7 in 20 this season (3 of 10 at home), San Jose Earthquakes 12 in 20 (6 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 47% and 60%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 75%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 57%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 47%, from expected goals of 1.32 for Houston Dynamo and 1.25 for San Jose Earthquakes. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Dynamo | 20 | 35% | 20% | 35% |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 20 | 60% | 50% | 60% |
More: Houston Dynamo season stats · San Jose Earthquakes season stats · MLS table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.