Serie A · Sunday, 30 August 2026 · 22:30. Our rating makes this 47% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Serie A average is 47%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 76% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Gremio at 59%, the draw at 23% and Chapecoense-sc at 18%, from expected goals of 1.75 and 0.84.
The league sets the starting point. Serie A has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Gremio have 10 in 22 this season (5 of 11 at home), Chapecoense-sc 12 in 22 (4 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 46% and 48%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 47%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 48%, from expected goals of 1.75 for Gremio and 0.84 for Chapecoense-sc. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gremio | 22 | 45% | 14% | 59% |
| Chapecoense-sc | 22 | 55% | 36% | 64% |
More: Gremio season stats · Chapecoense-sc season stats · Serie A table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.