Primera Nacional · Sunday, 30 August 2026 · 22:00. Our rating makes this 34% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Primera Nacional average is 30%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% | 66% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14% | 86% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 40% | 60% | No |
The result model puts Godoy Cruz at 57%, the draw at 27% and San Telmo at 16%, from expected goals of 1.44 and 0.61.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Nacional has produced over 2.5 goals in 30% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Godoy Cruz have 10 in 25 this season (8 of 13 at home), San Telmo 9 in 25 (4 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 39% and 33%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 35%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 34%, from expected goals of 1.44 for Godoy Cruz and 0.61 for San Telmo. Folding in 30% of that view gives 34%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Godoy Cruz | 25 | 40% | 16% | 48% |
| San Telmo | 25 | 36% | 20% | 36% |
More: Godoy Cruz season stats · San Telmo season stats · Primera Nacional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.