Urvalsdeild · Sunday, 30 August 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 73% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Urvalsdeild average is 63%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 27% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 67% | 33% | Yes |
The result model puts Fram Reykjavik at 56%, the draw at 18% and KA Akureyri at 27%, from expected goals of 2.82 and 1.97.
The league sets the starting point. Urvalsdeild has produced over 2.5 goals in 63% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Fram Reykjavik have 14 in 19 this season (9 of 10 at home), KA Akureyri 12 in 19 (8 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 71% and 66%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 67%.
Head to head. These sides have met 7 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 71%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 67%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 86%, from expected goals of 2.82 for Fram Reykjavik and 1.97 for KA Akureyri. Folding in 30% of that view gives 73%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fram Reykjavik | 19 | 74% | 68% | 74% |
| KA Akureyri | 19 | 63% | 47% | 63% |
More: Fram Reykjavik season stats · KA Akureyri season stats · Urvalsdeild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.