Urvalsdeild · Sunday, 30 August 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 61% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Urvalsdeild average is 63%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 39% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 58% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 66% | 34% | Yes |
The result model puts FH Hafnarfjordur at 44%, the draw at 23% and Keflavik at 33%, from expected goals of 1.74 and 1.48.
The league sets the starting point. Urvalsdeild has produced over 2.5 goals in 63% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FH Hafnarfjordur have 10 in 19 this season (4 of 10 at home), Keflavik 12 in 19 (7 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 64%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 1.74 for FH Hafnarfjordur and 1.48 for Keflavik. Folding in 30% of that view gives 61%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH Hafnarfjordur | 19 | 53% | 37% | 63% |
| Keflavik | 19 | 63% | 42% | 74% |
More: FH Hafnarfjordur season stats · Keflavik season stats · Urvalsdeild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.