FC Vaduz v Grasshoppers — prediction, stats and goal analysis

Super League · Sunday, 30 August 2026 · 15:30. Our rating makes this 64% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Super League average is 68%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts FC Vaduz at 42%, the draw at 22% and Grasshoppers at 35%, from expected goals of 1.8 and 1.64.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. Super League has produced over 2.5 goals in 68% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. FC Vaduz have 3 in 3 this season (1 of 1 at home), Grasshoppers 2 in 3 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 71% and 67%.

Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 65% and 59%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 64%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 67%, from expected goals of 1.8 for FC Vaduz and 1.64 for Grasshoppers. Folding in 30% of that view gives 64%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

More: FC Vaduz season stats · Grasshoppers season stats · Super League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.