USL Championship · Sunday, 30 August 2026 · 01:30. Our rating makes this 42% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The USL Championship average is 49%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 58% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 76% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts FC Tulsa at 43%, the draw at 29% and Rhode Island at 28%, from expected goals of 1.23 and 0.92.
The league sets the starting point. USL Championship has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FC Tulsa have 5 in 19 this season (2 of 11 at home), Rhode Island 8 in 18 (5 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 37% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 44%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 37%, from expected goals of 1.23 for FC Tulsa and 0.92 for Rhode Island. Folding in 30% of that view gives 42%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Tulsa | 19 | 26% | 16% | 37% |
| Rhode Island | 18 | 44% | 33% | 56% |
More: FC Tulsa season stats · Rhode Island season stats · USL Championship table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.