Frauen-Bundesliga (W) · Sunday, 30 August 2026 · 13:00. Our rating makes this 68% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Frauen-Bundesliga (W) average is 67%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 32% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48% | 52% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts Eintracht Frankfurt W at 45%, the draw at 23% and Nürnberg W at 32%, from expected goals of 1.79 and 1.49.
The league sets the starting point. Frauen-Bundesliga (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 67% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Eintracht Frankfurt W have 0 in 1 this season (0 of 1 at home), Nürnberg W 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 67%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 0 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 80% and 69%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 73%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 75%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 73%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 64%, from expected goals of 1.79 for Eintracht Frankfurt W and 1.49 for Nürnberg W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 70%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 68%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt W | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Nürnberg W | 0 | — | — | — |
More: Eintracht Frankfurt W season stats · Nürnberg W season stats · Frauen-Bundesliga (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.