Premier Division · Sunday, 30 August 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 45% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Premier Division average is 48%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 55% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 76% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts Derry City at 43%, the draw at 28% and Shamrock Rovers at 29%, from expected goals of 1.33 and 1.03.
The league sets the starting point. Premier Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 48% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Derry City have 14 in 28 this season (7 of 14 at home), Shamrock Rovers 12 in 27 (6 of 14 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 49% and 45%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 47%.
Head to head. These sides have met 12 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 46%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 42%, from expected goals of 1.33 for Derry City and 1.03 for Shamrock Rovers. Folding in 30% of that view gives 45%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derry City | 28 | 50% | 29% | 64% |
| Shamrock Rovers | 27 | 44% | 26% | 56% |
More: Derry City season stats · Shamrock Rovers season stats · Premier Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.