NWSL (W) · Sunday, 30 August 2026 · 01:45. Our rating makes this 47% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The NWSL (W) average is 47%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | no pick |
The result model puts Denver Summit W at 64%, the draw at 22% and Chicago Red Stars W at 14%, from expected goals of 1.83 and 0.71.
The league sets the starting point. NWSL (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Denver Summit W have 10 in 19 this season (6 of 9 at home), Chicago Red Stars W 8 in 20 (5 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 44%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 47%, from expected goals of 1.83 for Denver Summit W and 0.71 for Chicago Red Stars W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Summit W | 19 | 53% | 26% | 63% |
| Chicago Red Stars W | 20 | 40% | 20% | 15% |
More: Denver Summit W season stats · Chicago Red Stars W season stats · NWSL (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.