Primera Division · Sunday, 30 August 2026 · 23:00. Our rating makes this 40% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Primera Division average is 44%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | 82% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Cerro Largo at 32%, the draw at 28% and Liverpool Montevideo at 39%, from expected goals of 1.07 and 1.22.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Cerro Largo have 8 in 25 this season (4 of 12 at home), Liverpool Montevideo 11 in 25 (5 of 13 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 38% and 43%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 41%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 40%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 40%, from expected goals of 1.07 for Cerro Largo and 1.22 for Liverpool Montevideo. Folding in 30% of that view gives 40%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cerro Largo | 25 | 32% | 16% | 40% |
| Liverpool Montevideo | 25 | 44% | 20% | 40% |
More: Cerro Largo season stats · Liverpool Montevideo season stats · Primera Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.