Brommapojkarna W v Piteå W — prediction, stats and goal analysis

Damallsvenskan (W) · Sunday, 30 August 2026 · 13:00. Our rating makes this 65% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Damallsvenskan (W) average is 65%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Brommapojkarna W at 39%, the draw at 24% and Piteå W at 36%, from expected goals of 1.52 and 1.45.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. Damallsvenskan (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 65% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Brommapojkarna W have 11 in 14 this season (6 of 7 at home), Piteå W 8 in 14 (4 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 72% and 62%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 67%.

Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 83%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 68%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 57%, from expected goals of 1.52 for Brommapojkarna W and 1.45 for Piteå W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 65%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

Head to head

More: Brommapojkarna W season stats · Piteå W season stats · Damallsvenskan (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.