First League · Sunday, 30 August 2026 · 17:00. Final score 1–3 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 51% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 45% | 55% | No |
The result model puts Botev Plovdiv at 26%, the draw at 24% and Levski Sofia at 50%, from expected goals of 1.18 and 1.73.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 49% | 50% | +1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 51% | 50% | -1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 | 50% | 45% | -5% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Botev Plovdiv 5.25, draw 3.70, Levski Sofia 1.67.
The league sets the starting point. First League has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Botev Plovdiv have 2 in 6 this season (1 of 3 at home), Levski Sofia 4 in 5 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 42% and 51%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 51% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 20%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 47%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 56%, from expected goals of 1.18 for Botev Plovdiv and 1.73 for Levski Sofia. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botev Plovdiv | 6 | 33% | 33% | 50% |
| Levski Sofia | 5 | 80% | 20% | 40% |
More: Botev Plovdiv season stats · Levski Sofia season stats · First League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.