Bodo/Glimt v Rosenborg — prediction, stats and goal analysis

Eliteserien · Sunday, 30 August 2026 · 13:30. Our rating makes this 61% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Eliteserien average is 62%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Bodo/Glimt at 72%, the draw at 17% and Rosenborg at 11%, from expected goals of 2.29 and 0.76.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. Eliteserien has produced over 2.5 goals in 62% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Bodo/Glimt have 12 in 17 this season (6 of 8 at home), Rosenborg 9 in 17 (3 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 66% and 56%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 61%.

Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 62%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 59%, from expected goals of 2.29 for Bodo/Glimt and 0.76 for Rosenborg. Folding in 30% of that view gives 61%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

Head to head

More: Bodo/Glimt season stats · Rosenborg season stats · Eliteserien table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.