Serie B · Sunday, 30 August 2026 · 20:00. Our rating makes this 46% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Serie B average is 48%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 54% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 77% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Benevento at 41%, the draw at 26% and Sudtirol at 32%, from expected goals of 1.4 and 1.21.
The league sets the starting point. Serie B has produced over 2.5 goals in 48% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Benevento have 1 in 1 this season (1 of 1 at home), Sudtirol 0 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 47%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 52% and 38%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 46%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 49%, from expected goals of 1.4 for Benevento and 1.21 for Sudtirol. Folding in 30% of that view gives 46%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benevento | 1 | 100% | 0% | 100% |
| Sudtirol | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
More: Sudtirol season stats · Serie B table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.