Serie A · Sunday, 30 August 2026 · 23:30. Our rating makes this 43% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Serie A average is 47%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 57% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | 78% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Bahia at 47%, the draw at 27% and Internacional at 26%, from expected goals of 1.39 and 0.96.
The league sets the starting point. Serie A has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Bahia have 11 in 23 this season (5 of 12 at home), Internacional 8 in 24 (4 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 46% and 40%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 44%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 43%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 42%, from expected goals of 1.39 for Bahia and 0.96 for Internacional. Folding in 30% of that view gives 43%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bahia | 23 | 48% | 22% | 65% |
| Internacional | 24 | 33% | 21% | 54% |
More: Bahia season stats · Internacional season stats · Serie A table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.