Liga F (W) · Sunday, 30 August 2026 · 11:00. Our rating makes this 40% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Liga F (W) average is 50%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 76% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 38% | 62% | No |
The result model puts Athletic Club W at 34%, the draw at 28% and FC Levante Badalona W at 38%, from expected goals of 1.13 and 1.21.
The league sets the starting point. Liga F (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Athletic Club W have 11 in 32 this season (7 of 16 at home), FC Levante Badalona W 11 in 30 (5 of 15 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 42% and 41%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 44%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 39%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 41%, from expected goals of 1.13 for Athletic Club W and 1.21 for FC Levante Badalona W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 40%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club W | 32 | 34% | 25% | 41% |
| FC Levante Badalona W | 30 | 37% | 30% | 33% |
More: Athletic Club W season stats · Liga F (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.